Florida · Online estimates, explained
How accurate is Zillow's Zestimate in Florida?
Short answer. By Zillow's own figures, last refreshed September 30, 2026, the Zestimate's median error in Florida is 7.43% for homes not for sale, with 61.14% landing within 10% of the sale price, and 1.92% for homes already listed. I'm Brent Sharp, broker and owner: 26 years helping people buy and sell homes here, 12,000+ homes valued, and on a $395,000 home, the St. Lucie County median, a 7.43% miss is about $29,300. Call or text Sharp Real Estate Group LLC at (772) 272-9571.
That doesn't make the Zestimate useless. Zillow calls it a free starting point and says it is not an appraisal. Below: Zillow's Florida and national figures in one table, what they mean in dollars at Treasure Coast prices, why the estimate tightens once a home is listed, and how a broker's written valuation from closed sales sits beside it.
Sharp Real Estate Group LLC · Free · No obligation to list
Zillow's published accuracy, refreshed Sep 30, 2026
Zillow; Florida Realtors. Links in Sources.
What does Zillow say about its own accuracy?
Zillow publishes its error rates by state and by large metro and refreshes them monthly. Median error is the middle miss: half of estimates miss the eventual sale price by less, half by more.
| Homes measured | Median error | Within 5% | Within 10% | Within 20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida, not for sale | 7.43% | 36.45% | 61.14% | 83.72% |
| Florida, listed for sale | 1.92% | 84.90% | 95.40% | 98.77% |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale metro, not for sale | 7.71% | 35.39% | 59.92% | 83.72% |
| Nationwide, not for sale | 7.20% | |||
| Nationwide, listed for sale | 1.77% |
Zillow does not publish a row for Port St. Lucie, St. Lucie County or Martin County. Its Florida metros are Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville. Blank cells: Zillow's national summary gives the median error only.
What does that error mean in dollars here?
| Home price | 7.43% median miss | Beyond 10% |
|---|---|---|
| $395,000 (St. Lucie County single-family median, September 2026) | About $29,300 | More than $39,500 |
| $600,000 (Martin County single-family median, September 2026) | About $44,600 | More than $60,000 |
For homes that are not for sale, which is every home whose owner is still deciding, about 39 in 100 Florida estimates miss by more than 10%. That is the range a seller sets a price inside if the Zestimate is the starting point. On a first price, a $29,000 gap can decide whether a home sells in its first weeks or sits.
Why does the Zestimate get closer once a home is listed?
Because the list price goes into it. Zillow says that for homes on the market, the Zestimate includes listing information such as the list price and recent market activity, which it does not have for off-market homes. So the 1.92% listed-home figure partly measures how close the estimate lands to a price a person already chose. If your Zestimate jumped or dropped the week you listed, that is why.
What can't an online estimate see?
Zillow says its model uses public records, MLS data and owner-submitted details, and draws on sales from an area that can be as large as a county. On the Treasure Coast, the things that move a price most are often not in those records:
- Condition and updates: a new roof, impact windows, a remodeled kitchen, or repairs that are still owed.
- Flood zone and insurance cost, which change what a buyer can pay each month.
- CDD and HOA fees: in Tradition the CDD operations and maintenance line alone is $439.51 to $967.80 a year, before any debt line or HOA dues.
- Water and the route to the inlet, where two homes on the same canal can serve different boats, as in Stuart.
- The street itself: a busy road, a lake view, a corner lot or a preserve behind the house.
Zestimate, broker valuation or appraisal: which do you need?
A Zestimate is Zillow's automated estimate. A broker's opinion of value, such as a broker price opinion or the Sharp Number, is a licensed broker's written estimate built from closed sales and active listings. An appraisal is a formal report that only a state-certified or licensed appraiser may issue, and it is what a lender orders for a mortgage. Under Florida law a broker's opinion may never be called an appraisal (s. 475.612, Florida Statutes). The full comparison is in what is a broker price opinion.
How should you use your Zestimate when you sell?
Bring it. Brent's line is simple: bring your Zestimate, and he'll show you the six sales behind his number. Put the two side by side, ask which closed sales each one rests on, and check the adjustments. The Sharp Number uses 3 closed sales and 3 active listings near your home, adjusted for the differences, with Brent's comments on each. It is free and written, a broker's opinion of value, not an appraisal. No obligation to list. See how value is set in Port St. Lucie.
Questions
How accurate is a Zestimate in Florida?
Zillow's own figures, refreshed September 30, 2026, put the Florida median error at 7.43% for homes not for sale, with 61.14% within 10% of the sale price, and 1.92% for homes listed for sale.
Is a Zestimate an appraisal?
No. Zillow says the Zestimate is not an appraisal and can't be used in place of one. It is an automated estimate from public records, MLS data and owner-submitted details.
Why did my Zestimate change after I listed my home?
For homes on the market, Zillow adds listing information such as the list price and recent market activity to the estimate. That information isn't available while a home is off the market, so the estimate can move when the listing goes live.
Does Zillow publish Zestimate accuracy for Port St. Lucie?
No. Zillow publishes Florida as a whole and four Florida metros: Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville. The Florida figure for homes not for sale is a 7.43% median error.
How much could a Zestimate be off on a Port St. Lucie home?
At Zillow's 7.43% Florida median error for homes not for sale, a $395,000 home, the September 2026 St. Lucie County single-family median, could be off by about $29,300, and about 39 in 100 Florida estimates miss by more than 10%.
How do I get a written number for my home?
Brent Sharp, broker and owner of Sharp Real Estate Group LLC, writes a Sharp Number from 3 closed sales and 3 active listings near your home, with his comments. It is a broker's opinion of value, not an appraisal, and it is free. No obligation to list. Call or text (772) 272-9571.
Want your own number?
Put a Sharp Number beside your Zestimate
- 3 closed sales and 3 active listings near your home
- Brent's comments on every sale, in writing
- Free. No obligation to list
Brent Sharp, Broker / Owner
Call or text (772) 272-9571 Get My Sharp Number Text Brent
The Sharp Number is a broker's opinion of value, not an appraisal. The request form opens on our homepage. Licensed Florida real estate brokerage, DBPR license CQ1051669. Port St. Lucie, FL.
Sources
- Zillow, What is a Zestimate?: accuracy tables by state and metro, last refreshed September 30, 2026: nationwide median error 1.77% listed and 7.20% not for sale; Florida 1.92% listed (84.90%, 95.40%, 98.77% within 5%, 10%, 20%) and 7.43% not for sale (36.45%, 61.14%, 83.72%); Miami-Fort Lauderdale 7.71% not for sale. Read October 29, 2026.
- Florida Realtors, Monthly Market Detail, September 2026, Single-Family Homes, St. Lucie County, published by Miami Realtors October 16, 2026 ($395,000 median).
- Florida Realtors, Monthly Market Detail, September 2026, Single-Family Homes, Martin County, published by Miami Realtors October 16, 2026 ($600,000 median).
- The Florida Statutes (2026), section 475.612: a broker's price opinion or opinion of value may not be referred to or construed as an appraisal.
- Tradition Community Development Districts 1-11, Final Budget Fiscal Year 2026/2027 (adopted September 2, 2026) (Tradition CDD operations and maintenance $439.51 to $967.80 plus the $715.89 Series 2014 debt line).
General information, not legal, tax or lending advice. Fees, rates and builder status change; confirm each one for the address before you rely on it.
Last updated · Published October 29, 2026 · Reviewed by Brent Sharp, Broker